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Current S&P 500 Trends
Long-Term Since 8/19/2014

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DJI30 CFI: 0.28    Previous: 0.08
as of Monday, September 15, 2014
Dow30 CFI (Capital Flow Index)
 
cxalgo Theories & Models
Click On Charts For More Information
*** Selected Models — Time Granularity: 3
Model: U.S.A. Economy
Current Phase: Contraction  
Start: 2014  - End: 2017
Model: Eurozone Economy
Current Phase: Contraction  
Start: 2014  - End: 2017
Model: Major Global Conflict
Current Phase: Expansion  
Start: 2014  - End: 2016
Model: China's Political Structure
Current Phase: Stabilization  
Start: 2013  - End: 2016
 
 
cxalgo Economic Charts

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
cxalgo BroadView

Markets Marry Fantasia And We Play Musical Chairs

Monday, September 01, 2014

The market “correction” came and went, with market participants choosing to dismiss the ever-expanding global ...

Bashes, Crashes and Ashes

Sunday, August 03, 2014

In keeping sensationalism alive, some people have been calling for parabolic market runs while others have predicted ...

True Economic Condition Far Weaker, Market Valuation Reaching Peak

Monday, June 30, 2014

After an expensive education, I made a conscientious effort of letting my economics courses fade from memory, ...


begin text  If you are ecstatic with 10% annual returns, the status quo, and are not interested in actively managing your money, then cxalgo is not for you. There's no right or wrong in the investment world, only differences that deliver relatively superior or inferior results, and we respect everyone's choices. If you're seeking higher returns and are willing to pull the trigger as necessary, then let's start with simple facts.

Investment strategies and advice come in many flavors, and fundamental analysis is the main driver behind decisions for most investors. But a stock's true value is often elusive, and methodologies used to discern whether any given security or index is undervalued or overvalued based on financial statements, have no relationship to prevailing market prices.

Prices are driven by emotions and perceptions, even when erroneous, and the resulting capital flows into, and out of, a security or ETF is the only factor that determines the value's rise and fall, irrespective of economic conditions, fundamental analysis, and the logic behind the capital flows. It's all about measuring macro investor sentiment, because the aggregate perception is what truly matters, whether it makes sense to us or not!

Frankly, we haven't looked at a financial statement in detail in over a decade, and the truth is that we don't "invest" in companies: We trade stock certificates. After all, we're not fully informed, decision-making C-level executives of any company or board members, and do not have real-time access to the "books."

cxalgo developed proprietary quantitative algorithms that seek short-term opportunities in any market condition, whether the individual's objective is growth or income. We don't dwell on greed or fear, or subscribe to irrelevant "Bull" and "Bear" concepts, while continuously refining our methodologies.
Total Return
as of Monday, September 15, 2014
* cxalgo's Nimble Growth
Traditional Buy Hold Reinvesting Strategy
S&P 500 (SPY)
Dow Jones Industrials (DIA)
Nasdaq 100 (QQQ)
Wilshire 5000 (VTI)
Russell 2000 (IWM)

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Return on Investment Chart
NIMBLE STATS
** Full Capital Exposure: 48.4% of the Time
Average Daily Risk Exposure: 45.5% of Capital
Average Total Monthly Trades: 18
Trade Types: 60.8% Long - 39.2% Short

Returns are real, not simulated or back tested. Statistics are calculated in real-time and include all trades. Additional portfolio performance net of trade commissions and cxalgo's fees is shown under Services. Please see footnotes below for additional information.


We never chase the latest hype, and we're only in the market when the odds are in our favor, while maintaining a keen awareness of changes in capital flows and sentiment, and accepting that every trade/investment is inherently risky, without exception. And we never borrow to trade. Period!

The biggest mistake that individuals make is believing that they must be in the market all the time, afraid of missing the wave — but not all waves are created equal. We are extremely comfortable with being 100% in cash, and sometimes we just sit back and quietly observe, while never losing our sense of humor!

Our "Average Daily Risk Exposure" is a testament to our focus on risk management, while capitalizing on opportunity. Calculating Portfolio Alpha and Beta may be a fun exercise and a conversation starter, but it is irrelevant and only the tangible and measurable end result, or Return on Investment, truly matters.

Nimble reduces risk considerably because a percentage of capital remains Risk Free a portion of the time, unlike the traditional "buy-and-hold" investment approach with 100% of capital exposed to risk, year-round.

Our last 36 trades below (6 day delay) are a sample of the complete story — the good, the bad and the ugly, not just the gorgeous! In the interest of full disclosure, Nimble is aggressive by traditional standards, and doesn't fit everyone's personality.

Think macro, play micro! text end
   
SymbolNameTradeOpen DatePriceClose DatePriceP/LROIT/PV%
RRCRange Resources Corp.Short9/4/2014$76.209/10/2014$74.74$1.461.92 %16 %
UTXUnited Technologies Corp.Short9/2/2014$108.269/10/2014$108.67($0.41)-0.38 %16 %
QCOMQualcomm Inc.Short9/3/2014$75.469/8/2014$75.49($0.03)-0.04 %12 %
ZMHZimmer HoldingsShort9/2/2014$99.729/8/2014$101.00($1.28)-1.28 %16 %
AVGOAvago TechnologiesShort9/3/2014$85.279/5/2014$86.36($1.09)-1.28 %20 %
GOOGLGoogle IncShort8/29/2014$582.359/4/2014$591.60($9.25)-1.59 %16 %
VZVerizon Communications InLong8/29/2014$49.439/2/2014$49.82$0.390.79 %16 %
CVXChevron Corp.Long8/29/2014$129.009/2/2014$129.20$0.200.16 %16 %
UCOProShares Ultra BloombergLong8/15/2014$32.099/2/2014$32.00($0.09)-0.28 %16 %
BITABitauto Holdings LimitedShort8/26/2014$92.208/28/2014$86.66$5.546.01 %16 %
HDHome DepotShort8/22/2014$90.748/28/2014$91.40($0.66)-0.73 %16 %
VVisa Inc.Long8/21/2014$216.508/26/2014$216.49($0.01)0.00 %16 %
JPMJ P Morgan Chase & CoLong8/21/2014$57.668/26/2014$59.57$1.913.31 %16 %
JNJJohnson & JohnsonLong8/21/2014$103.338/26/2014$103.47$0.140.14 %16 %
TSLATesla MotorsShort8/22/2014$254.548/25/2014$258.19($3.65)-1.43 %16 %
BITABitauto Holdings LimitedShort8/20/2014$81.708/21/2014$78.76$2.943.60 %16 %
MNSTMonster Beverage CorpShort8/18/2014$91.998/21/2014$88.40$3.593.90 %16 %
IBMInternational Business MaShort8/15/2014$187.858/21/2014$190.90($3.05)-1.62 %16 %
TWTRTwitter IncLong8/18/2014$45.068/19/2014$45.24$0.180.40 %16 %
TRVThe Travelers Companies ILong8/18/2014$92.428/19/2014$92.87$0.450.49 %16 %
AMZNAmazon.comLong8/18/2014$335.488/19/2014$334.87($0.61)-0.18 %16 %
AAPLApple Inc.Long8/14/2014$97.338/15/2014$97.90$0.570.59 %16 %
URIUnited RentalsLong8/13/2014$110.508/15/2014$112.15$1.651.49 %16 %
NFLXNetflixLong8/13/2014$448.608/15/2014$452.05$3.450.77 %16 %
MSFTMicrosoft Corp.Long8/13/2014$43.688/15/2014$44.58$0.902.06 %16 %
MRKMerck & CompanyShort8/11/2014$56.708/13/2014$57.39($0.69)-1.22 %16 %
INTCIntel Corp.Short8/11/2014$32.828/13/2014$33.24($0.42)-1.28 %16 %
WMTWal-Mart StoresShort8/8/2014$74.068/13/2014$74.27($0.21)-0.28 %16 %
CATCaterpillarShort8/8/2014$102.018/13/2014$104.33($2.32)-2.27 %16 %
LBL Brands IncLong8/6/2014$58.428/7/2014$61.80$3.385.79 %16 %
TSLATesla MotorsLong8/6/2014$238.908/7/2014$250.12$11.224.70 %16 %
FBFacebook IncLong8/4/2014$72.368/7/2014$73.00$0.640.88 %16 %
AAPLApple Inc.Long8/4/2014$96.378/7/2014$94.93($1.44)-1.49 %16 %
GSGoldman Sachs GroupShort8/5/2014$171.308/6/2014$168.15$3.151.84 %16 %
VVisa Inc.Short8/5/2014$211.508/6/2014$209.98$1.520.72 %16 %
JNJJohnson & JohnsonShort7/25/2014$102.277/30/2014$102.27$0.000.00 %16 %

Important Note: Trades are shown in chronological order, and are not selected for their results. Results may vary dependent upon the round trip commission/capital ratio used. Stock prices reflect the next market open price after cxalgo's broadcast, and final price updates are processed by 9:00 p.m. EST. There is no guarantee that orders will be executed at the published market open price, and results may be higher or lower dependent on broker, order routing, and execution time. Round trip commission used in calculations is $20 for first 1,000 shares, and $0.02/share for 1,001+ shares.

* Total Return & Nimble Long: Returns are based on a $100,000 portfolio and a higher capital level yields higher returns. Total Return "Since 2011" for cxalgo's Nimble Growth is cumulative and net of trade commissions. Short-term capital gains tax is a liability that must be taken into account by using your marginal tax rate as published by the IRS. Individual annual returns are not cumulative, but are net of trade commissions. The return for Nimble Long reflects only the long trades being executed. Interest rate charged on borrowed shares (short selling) is not included. Returns for Index funds (ETFs) are calculated based on a buy-and-hold dividend reinvesting strategy, with dividends reinvested every quarter on the payment date and using the ETF open price for that day. ETF returns "since 2011" are cumulative, and returns for individual years are for the respective annual periods. Trade commissions, fees and capital gains tax liability for ETFs are not included. Fractional ETF shares are used. If fractional shares are not allowed by your broker the results may be slightly different. Dividend data is provided by Nasdaq.

** Full Capital Exposure & Average Daily Risk Exposure: Nimble Portfolio is almost never fully invested and may hold 100% cash during some periods. Even though it would be positive, credit for interest earnings on cash and incidental dividends are not included.

*** Generational Economic Cycle (GEC): Sample cycles provided are only a subset of the complete collection and interact with a variety of other cycles across the globe. Precise dates and cycle/sub-cycle magnitudes are proprietary and undisclosed.

Necessary Simple Legalese: There is risk in life and investing is no different. This is not a solicitation to buy or sell any securities, and cxalgo, llc and its agents are not liable for anything and/or to anybody as a result of advice/opinions dispensed. cxalgo, llc is NOT a registered financial adviser. If unsure, you should seek advice from independent investment professionals, although we are virtually certain that some disclaimer regarding the lack of liability will apply to their services, such as past performance is not indicative of future results.

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