Eurozone Contraction Phase Is In Play

Let’s first address the polling industry and how unreliable and manipulated the whole thing actually is. Right before the BREXIT vote, REMAIN was up by 4 points, which could potentially discourage citizens to cast their ballot in favor of LEAVING. I will be damned… it didn’t quite work, did it? And then the fear mongering about how Britain will be doomed without the European Union went on, and on, and on… and it’s still going. To make the point short and sweet, the British cannot yet appreciate how lucky they will be by exiting ahead of the crowd, much like they were fortunate that a certain lady kept the island off the shared currency. One day, not too far into the future, when economic chaos descends upon the European continent, British people will dance in the street and down a few pints. No poll required!

The fascinating report “IMF admits disastrous love affair with the euro” highlighted in 2016 the silliness of overpaid, intellectually disabled, politically driven, human disasters.

The report said the whole approach to the Eurozone was characterized by “groupthink” and intellectual capture. They had no fall-back plans on how to tackle a systemic crisis in the Eurozone – or how to deal with the politics of a multinational currency union – because they had ruled out any possibility that it could happen. “Before the launch of the euro, the IMF’s public statements tended to emphasize the advantages of the common currency,” it said. Some staff members warned that the design of the euro was fundamentally flawed but they were overruled.

But what exactly is going on? Let’s examine the European Union project.

Europeans are puzzled because immigrants from the Old Continent formed the U.S., and after stealing land and committing a number of other atrocities in the name of nation building, which were no different from what everyone else was doing around the world at the time, the now departed Europeans were able to transform a vast, unproductive land, into a world power. Furthermore, they no longer identified with Europe, apart from keeping their traditions and beliefs. Why did Europe fall behind, especially when France was the most powerful economy until 1860? They will never get it! And the underlying reasons will provide enough material for another book.

But here’s a starting point and, as far as I can tell, Einstein was one of the first to acknowledge and embrace it: Meritocracy! Unlike in Europe, where the ruling class is composed of persons with implied birth rights or wealth, the U.S. developed into a society where, in general, everyone speaks their mind freely without fear of reprisal from the higher class, and leaders are chosen for their superior talents or intellect, although over time conditions have changed and we can debate the merits of some individuals with respect to the positions they hold. Actually, the current woke nonsense is trying to destroy meritocracy so the less capable have a seat at the table for the sake of diversity.

The Euro grand design concocted by the elite overlooked the fiscal union required to ensure that all participants were on the same page, much like in a marriage. To illustrate, a wedding brings two people together and, in some cases, the monetary union — joint bank accounts — is not complemented by a fiscal union. While one spouse has a steady revenue stream, savings plan, and spends with moderation, the other may borrow from banks, family, and friends, and consider all income disposable, spending cash and piling on debt as if it’s going out of style. Eventually, the bills will come due and the sensible partner will have to rescue the family from disaster, or both go bankrupt.

That’s Europe as it stands today! But we’re talking polygamy, not marriage, which makes the European Union worse.

The Socialist free-for-all dogma that European governments have embraced for the last 50 years, especially along the Southern states, created an unsustainable economic environment that rewarded the inept and stimulated low productivity. Why would anybody have an urgency to save, or work hard for that matter, when the state guarantees that retirement benefits and free health care will be provided for you?

The Great Depression was a global contagion, and the countries that defaulted in the early 30s were Austria, Germany, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria, not to mention most of South and Central America. Poland joined the club in 1936, followed by Italy and Turkey in 1940. But looking at history before 1929, the period between 1914 and 1917 also saw defaults and/or restructuring by the likes of Austria, Bulgaria, Romania, Russia, Argentina, and Brazil.

Not much was learned from the fact that uncontrolled debt, both public and private, will cause chaos, deflate the economic balloon and deliver austere plans to the masses, leading to social change. The Euro, not other currencies or countries, created a giant internal debt problem that must be dealt with. How’s the Euro responsible? It enabled the less credit worthy countries within the Eurozone to borrow at low interest rates that wouldn’t be available otherwise, thus providing further financing to societies with extreme and unsustainable social benefits and low productivity. Unfortunately the side effects will be felt worldwide, because we’re a gigantic global, cheerful, family.

Succinctly speaking, the Euro and related union was ill conceived by those with a self-serving political vision driven by intellectual inability, overlooking screaming barriers and mismatches to success, such as incompatible economies, language, culture and lack of mobility, and undying nationalism, especially during economic contractions.

USA & Eurozone GDP comparison 1960-2020
USA & Eurozone GDP comparison 1960-2020

It is clear that the GDP for the Eurozone has stalled since the housing crisis in 2008 triggered the great recession, while the USA found it’s footing, although temporarily — and Purchase Power Parity (PPP) is pure nonsense. The upcoming economic disaster that will start in China and then spread to the USA will exacerbate the Eurozone’s dire conditions. Now keep in mind that COVID in conjunction with political stupidity only accelerated the process. Or maybe everything was already forecasted and the puzzle pieces are falling into place because cycles have an amusing way of unfolding.

Looking at the GEC, here’s the timeline, and with BREXIT having occurred a few months away from 2017, there’s this uneasy feeling that we will stick to the schedule. The remaining question: What major event will mark the next phase of the cycle’s contraction in 2025?

Meanwhile we still harbor the hilarious belief that economists understand economics, although their use of rational, linear logic in non-linear, highly emotional, irrational societies is always a recipe for disaster. Here’s the question: When was the last time that economists saved the world? In addition, there’s this yearning for economic and social perfection where “busts” cannot happen, even though humanity’s inherent greed always leads to excess which must be trimmed. Nothing will ever change and 10,000 years from now humans will be dealing with the same exact emotionally charged decisions while simultaneously combating the stupid idiots of the future. There’s one born every minute — for eternity!

Globalism’s economic objective is to obtain the cheapest labor, but the political goal is to grab power by reducing everyone to the lowest common denominator, although there’s absolutely no benefit from globalization as defined, except for the transfer of wealth to the less capable segments of humanity. Not all cats are equal! Got it?


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